米国キルラインブログ
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研究ノート、方法論の最新情報、米国の Kill Line 分析。
CPI and real earnings (Feb 13): a household-first watchlist
Before the January 2026 CPI and real earnings release, here is a practical checklist for interpreting what changes household pressure.
ECI Q4 2025: why wage-cost trends still need an inflation check
A short brief on how to use the Employment Cost Index without confusing nominal gains for real relief.
January 2026 jobs report: what households should watch next
A practical read-through of the February 11 jobs release and how it maps to job-risk and budget resilience.
Household debt in Q4 2025: three signals to track before stress rises
A quick framework for reading the New York Fed debt release through a household resilience lens.
ALICE vs the poverty line (why “working” can still be fragile)
A plain-language explanation of ALICE thresholds and how they relate to Kill Line thinking.
How to read CPI (what actually changes your budget)
Headline vs core, shelter, YoY vs MoM—plus a household interpretation framework.
How to read the US jobs report (without getting misled)
A practical guide to the Employment Situation release: payrolls, unemployment, participation, and revisions.
Savings rate and buffers: what it signals (and what it doesn’t)
How to interpret the personal saving rate and connect it to household runway.
Inflation vs Wage Growth (and why “real” matters)
A practical way to think about CPI, wage growth, and how they change your runway above the Kill Line.
Debt service is the hidden Kill Line driver
How interest rates turn stable balances into unstable payments—and what households should watch.
The Rise of the "Kill Line" Phenomenon
Why a gaming metaphor became the defining economic symbol of 2025.