With CPI and real earnings scheduled for February 13, 2026, many headlines will focus on one number.
Households need a better checklist.
A practical release-day checklist
1) Core trend versus one-off moves
Separate broad inflation pressure from volatile components. That keeps short-term noise from driving long-term household decisions.
2) Real wage direction
Track whether pay growth is beating inflation after adjustment. If real wages stay flat or negative, monthly pressure can persist even with slower headline inflation.
3) Essentials versus aggregate index
Household stress is often concentrated in essentials (housing, food, energy, insurance, transport). Broad averages can improve while household budgets still feel tight.
Why this matters for US Kill Line
In the Kill Line framework, CPI and real earnings update the price-pressure side of the model. Combined with jobs and debt signals, they help distinguish:
- temporary pressure from structural fragility,
- slower deterioration from active stabilization.
Sources
- BLS February 2026 release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/02_sched.htm
- BLS CPI release page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm
- BLS Real Earnings release page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm
Disclaimer
This article is educational and not financial, legal, tax, or investment advice.